Saturday, October 18, 2008

BEST AG/FERT STOCK TO SHORT

For the more intermediate-term trader...have fun. Monsanto (MON) just joined the party and has a looooong ways to go.

Here was my OCT 1 post on going short. Reader's would have made a killing: http://tinyurl.com/6krp9u. 12 trading days later, most of these names dropped by over 50%. Now that's a GREAT short trade!


Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi John,
This stock hold very well for the last few days compare to POT, MOS, CF. I have short this on for the last few days but I have not make any killing yet. Thanks for this chart John. I will short more... Do you think all AG stocks is still good to short ...It had down big for the last month. Thanks

John C. Lee said...

Here's my post from OCT 1. Most of these names feel by 50% since time or writing. I expect more hedge fund de-levering (yes, even still) and a deflating on the agri/fertz stocks.

http://tinyurl.com/6krp9u

Can they sitll go down further? Yes, but it's a bit riskier now that most are in the late stages of distribution. On Oct 1, reader's would have made a killing like I did this month.

Anonymous said...

John,
Risk/reward still favor SHORT? Fund manager year end TAX LOSS still in the work... Your input! Thanks

John C. Lee said...

Fund managers are so screwed. It takes them a LONG time to unwind multi-million share positions without collapsing the stock while they do it. They're not really concerned about a tax loss benefit but more in preserving capital. They're gonna get it regardless.

I mentioned in an above comment that it may be slightly riskier, but only for people who can hold for 2-3 weeks.

John C. Lee said...

Anonymous people need to get one:

1) Blogger ID
2) Name/URL ID
3) Open ID

Pick one, so I don't have to guess if it's the same person or different people. Thanks.

SteveW said...

MON was a great call; I jumped in just below $100 and am quite happy with the trade. I'm leaving my position open here, as the materials sector looks to gaining momentum to the downside, and the monthly chart for MON is just too pretty for me to give up yet!