Saturday, October 24, 2009

Rising Wedge Divergences in the Indices (And Stocktwits Charity Poker Tournament)

What’s up, ya’ll?

I was looking at the DJIA, SPX, COMP, and RUT to assess how each index compares with each other when it comes to the development stages of the “rising wedge”.

First, the DJIA is in a perfect wedge. The apex is still developing.

The SPX is the chart that I look at with most frequency. We are close to touching the lower trend line.

Next up is the COMP. The COMP is technically out of it’s wedge and forming a possible ascending triangle. Pay close attention as the apex becomes fully developed.

Last but definitely not least, I’d like you to turn your attention to the RUT. If anything, the RUT has to be paid attention to the most. Notice how I haven’t been seriously playing the small caps for 2 months straight? This is why. Make note that the RUT IS forming an ascending triangle. The ascending triangle is textbook bullish, however, don’t forget that I mentioned several times that failed patterns can produce large profits if you are on the right side. The range here is definitely tightening. Mark the 50-day as the most important support (notice how the RUT will be the first to test the 50-day vs. the other indices?).

Finally, I will be playing in the Stocktwits Charity Poker Tournament tomorrow. This is a really great thing that Joey (a.k.a Downtowntrader) started up. There is a bounty for knocking me out: a bottle of grey goose, courtesy of Joey himself.


UPDATE: Rising Wedge Possibilities

Thursday, October 22, 2009


Thomas Edison was asked how he was able to accomplish so much with his time. He said, "It's simple. You and I both have eighteen hours a day in which to do as we choose. You spend the eighteen hours doing a number of unrelated things. I spend it doing just one thing, and some of my work is bound to amount to something."

If you want to be successful in any field, there is one rule to observe: concentrate your efforts. Get one thing in your mind. Learn to ignore all the distractions and temptations along the way. Then, put all the power you have into forward motion.

If you've read Ralph Waldo Emerson, you'll know that he wrote two essays that apply to success, one titled "Power" and the other titled "Wealth". The main theme in each is concentration. Emerson said, "Stop all miscellaneous activities. Do away with distractions, other duties, property cares, chores, errands, diverting talents and flatteries-all are impossible." And he said elsewhere, "The one prudence in life is concentration. The one evil is dissipation."

Can you concentrate on one goal when you aren't quite sure what that goal is? Can you move forward firmly and decisively on one road without constantly looking elsewhere to see what's going on? People who know how to concentrate put all their effort into their projects, continually improving their ability to succeed.

Dissipation is the opposite. A person who dissipates is like an archer who tries to shoot several arrows at once: the arrows move with dissipated force and rarely ever hit the target (unless you're Robin Hood, maybe). People who dissipate jump from one thing to another, neither improving their abilities nor moving forward toward success.

How does this apply to trading? This can apply several ways. The most obvious is if you quit your job to trade, then find that trading might not be for you, so then you move onto something else and beyond. Perhaps your efforts in trading were not concentrated. How about continually trying to find the "holy grail"? We heard this term used so often, but surprisingly, many traders are still looking for it! Stop moving from one thing to another and concentrate your efforts in improving your core skills.

Let's take the case of two brain surgeons with equal prospects of success. One puts all his efforts into his work and all of his money into a relatively safe investment to ensure longer-term financial success. The other doctor tries to play the stock market and practice medicine on the side (or vice versa). Ultimately, the second doctor's practice suffers when the market goes up and his money when it's going down (provided that he's just another retail loser). How would you like to have brain surgery performed on you by a doctor who had just lost $100,000 in the stock market?

The point is, trying to diversify too widely will always detract from your success."Where you believe the treasure is, there will your heart be also." That is an immutable law. Can you then be a success if your heart is in three different places - or five or a dozen? No, of course not. I am having this struggle right now as I am juggling so many things at once such as my course work, fund, real estate, internet stuff like iBC and Stocktwits, and much more.

Whatever you choose to spend your time on, spend it well. Whatever your goals are, make sure they are unified. Only a person who specializes becomes truly successful these days. Word?

Wednesday, October 21, 2009