Yesterday started with several losses (mostly from AONE) which were mitigated with one sweet trade in AIG in the afternoon. The TOL trade was peanuts. It pays to pay attention, you know. Below, I posted annotated charts with my AONE loss and my AIG win. Things to be learned from both trades. In the end, I won. Winning sure is more fun than losing, but I don't have to tell you that.
There are a lot of people that try to mimic my style, but it's not for everyone. In fact, it's probably not for most people. I never had a mentor to teach me so I found my own way all by myself. Stop copying people and go explore your own path. What I do should just be one tool in your toolbox, mostly likely the HAMMER. Go through my educational articles and find out who you are and what style best suits you.
The SPX, along with many other indices and individual sectors, formed shooting stars, black-filled candles, and all types of doji. The narrow range, again, made it difficult to trade. Know when to just stop and watch. You're not missing anything. This lack of follow-through is killing the probabilities of even the highest probable trades, thus reducing the chances of success. I am looking for range expansion, follow-through, more volume, and other characteristics so I don't have to deal with uncertainty.
Beware of false breakouts and breakdowns. The tell is the volume. Here's a little summary:
To go long: Breakouts - bullish on high volume. Buying with pressure and conviction. Pullbacks - bullish on low volume. Indicates healthy consolidation.
To go short:Breakdowns - bearish on high volume. Selling with pressure and conviction. Pullbacks - bearish on low volume. Indicates healthy consolidation.
Didn't I write an article on this? Anyway, HAPPY BIRTHDAY to iBankCoin! Almost exactly a year ago, I got on board and enjoyed it ever since trading with some good folks and dealing with a bunch of assholes.
Currently neutral-bearish. My sentiment has not changed and I believe the correction may take a while, but that's just my thoughts. What are we looking for?
SPX - The 20-day MA test continues with a possible H&S pattern developing. The criteria is that a lower high is produced on the daily which is TBD.
DJIA - Possible ascending triangle still developing.Out of all the indices, if we do continue with the rally, the DJIA should be the first to break to new highs.
COMP - Currently the most neutral out of all the indices. Between the 20/50-day MA's. Will be neutral for several days. Possible channels are drawn out.
RUT - Still the weakest of all.Broke an ascending triangle and now flagging. The 20-day MA has crossed below the 50-day MA and may be used as future resistance. Look for further consolidation.
BKX - Weakest sector is the banking index. Forming a bear flag. The market will have difficulty if the financials do not rally. Pretty obvious, right? Watch them carefully.
All of this is where the neutral-bearish stance comes. When you trade, never forget to look for the high probability setups. I am playing them daily, and winning daily. The better the intra-day and/or daily setup, the better odds you have at success. Don't just "play anything" or people like me will take your money.
Don't complain about my wins. If you aren't winning, then you're doing something wrong. Figure out what you're doing wrong, fix it, and start winning with me.
