Thursday, October 1, 2009


I'm continuing to look at the 20-day MA for the initial reaction in the SPX. I am also looking to see if it may possibly need the help of the 50-day MA, which will bring the market into a flat, neutral range. The latter is a threat to the rally. So far, I see an orderly pullback and nothing that suggests that we go crashing down.

There are a few things that I need to talk about regarding the individual sectors. The XLB, XLV, XLI, XLU, XLF, and XLE are consolidating nicely, which is expected. However, I am focusing on the XLK, XLP, and XLY. Make note that that these three are forming the apex of their respective wedges. A resolution here may foreshadow what is to come in the next few days/weeks.

Wednesday, September 30, 2009


Scientists have estimated that the average human makes 50 to 60 thousand decisions everyday, whether they realize it or not. This includes conscious as well as subconscious thoughts. That makes decision making one of the most important things you do in life (obviously). Everyday, you decide between happiness and misery, work and fun, success and failure. You make your own determiniation as to direction, speed, and destination. And, you decide for yourself how you're going to get where you want to go.

As far as we know, humans are the only creatures on Earth that have the ability to make conscious decisions. Dogs behave as dogs have always behaved, by their nature. A dog does not have the capacity to decide to do otherwise, even though it may have its own quirks. The hive built by bees today is the same design as hives built by bees a thousand years ago. Nature conforms to a definite pattern, within each species, through birth, growth, reproduction, and death. There is little variation.

However, humans are different. They can change. They have the power to reason and think and to use information. It has been said that there is only one point at which all humans are alike and that is that they are all different. The reason is because each person can act independently. The biggest business of any life, then, is deciding what to do next. This is also the hardest thing to do. Why? Because it's the place where success or failure is ultimately determined.

So what is a decision? By definition, you make a decision by making one side of an argument the victor over the other. To decide is to "bring an end to vacillation." It is the "termination of doubt or controversy." To decide means to "conclude" after careful investigation or reasoning. And a real decision implies a degree of firmness that enables you to carry your plans through a conclusion.

How does all of this apply to trading? Trading is all about making decisions. I make split second decisions all day long, some of which do not have the time for "thinking". If you hesitate, you will lose or lose out on some ridiculous gains. We are not creatures without the ability to make decisions and only you can make them for yourselves. I know it's difficult for most of you to "pull the trigger", but trading is all about taking risks. You cannot get ahead without taking them. You must take chances and not be afraid. Are you just going to sit there all day and not make a move?

A lot of people confuse intention with a decision. That's like confusing a blueprint with a finished house. Almost everyone wants (intends) to do successful things in their lives, but most never get around to it. You've heard that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. If that's true, then the road to failure is lined with billboards of good intentions. A decision is a mental state that is far more advanced and has far greater power than any mere intention. We all intend to make trades, but if you don't actually make them, then what's the point?

Make up your mind. Emerson said that "the world belongs to the energetic." Very few things are as mentally and physically invigorating as a successful day at work (ex: winning like a mofo on your trades). Emerson also said, "Work every hour, paid or unpaid. See only that you work, and you cannot escape your reward. Whether your work be fine or coarse, plating corn or writing epics, honest work, done to your own approbation, shall earn for you the greatest rewards known to the senses." Honest work earns the greatest rewards of success, but even industry must be preceded by decision.

Emerson might just as easily have said that "the world belongs to those who can make up their minds."