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American Century Mid Cap Value Fund Q3 2024 Commentary
18 minutes ago
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Friday, October 31, 2008
PREMIUM SERVICES
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FYI - I have all my sign-ups for the coaching. I'm not taking anymore people.
For those that signed up for 1) the private daily one-on-one coaching or 2) the premium newsletter full of my personal picks, I have separate PayPal buttons up for each to the left of the blog. If you do not have a PayPal account, the button will tell you how to sign up.
Remember, if you signed for the coaching, the newsletter is included. If you wish to sign up for the newsletter, it's still available.
All funds will be placed on hold and I will be e-mailing you a survey, some important documents (instructions) on Saturday so I can determine if you'll actually benefit the most out of the program that you signed up for.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
TODAY'S ACTION
Another day full of pattern failures. Q4 GDP should be terrible. What was really surprising is how jobless claims came in at "unchanged". Are you serious? Is this a joke? How is that possible? They won't get away with "unchanged" in next week's report. But first, we have several reports out tomorrow morning, including personal income and U. Mich. Consumer Sentiment.
So, despite the negative economic news, we still gapped up significantly but sold off immediately ("sell the news"). Then we drifted down and hit support at 940 (SPX) at the gap's opening, then gave off a reactionary rally, and finally dropped down to yesterday's close (aka the highly-reliable WTF pattern). That proved to be enough support as we formed an inverse head and shoulders (or the bat formation) and rallied as close as we could to this morning's high before breaking down. We again found support at this morning's gap opening and was just about to breakdown until..."WTF" showed up again in the last 10 minutes of trading.
We're in a long consolidation range and don't seem to be going anywhere, but on the 3-day chart, we formed what looks like a cup with handle pattern. The 6-month chart shows that we're still not comfortably out of bear territory and that we're still testing the 20-day MA. Even though volume is light, it is now obivous and clear that program trading from the guys with some big dough are responsible for the swings. What else could you expect from a market that is not as liquid as before?
S&P 500 1-day
S&P 500 3-day
S&P 500 10-day
So, despite the negative economic news, we still gapped up significantly but sold off immediately ("sell the news"). Then we drifted down and hit support at 940 (SPX) at the gap's opening, then gave off a reactionary rally, and finally dropped down to yesterday's close (aka the highly-reliable WTF pattern). That proved to be enough support as we formed an inverse head and shoulders (or the bat formation) and rallied as close as we could to this morning's high before breaking down. We again found support at this morning's gap opening and was just about to breakdown until..."WTF" showed up again in the last 10 minutes of trading.
We're in a long consolidation range and don't seem to be going anywhere, but on the 3-day chart, we formed what looks like a cup with handle pattern. The 6-month chart shows that we're still not comfortably out of bear territory and that we're still testing the 20-day MA. Even though volume is light, it is now obivous and clear that program trading from the guys with some big dough are responsible for the swings. What else could you expect from a market that is not as liquid as before?
S&P 500 1-day
S&P 500 3-day
S&P 500 10-dayTODAY'S BREAKOUTS & BREAKDOWNS (10-29)
We continued the rally strong and what’s amazing is that breadth for the new highs-new lows has significantly improved. We hit 6 new highs and “only” 259 new lows. This was the improvement that I needed to see. It’s a start in the right direction but I can’t say that this is a permanent bottom. The important thing to know about permanent bottoms is that NO ONE knows where it’ll be. That’s a fact. People have been calling permanent bottoms since March. However, a tradable bottom is a different story. I would still wait for the rally to penetrate the confirmation line (nearest support or double bottom neckline) then wait for a healthy pullback to load up on longs. That would be least risky move. The key MA to watch is the 20-day MA.
I see a lot more breakouts and fewer breakouts now and it looks very positive. The majority of breakouts are created by a breakaway gap. These gaps end a trend and start a new trend immediately, all on one day. They are one of the most reliable reversal signals available. I would still wait for a healthy pullback on most of these because if the stock breaks down, then there’s no buffer against major loss. What I don’t want to see are more parabolic spikes because they become unsustainable. The shape of this rally will give you an idea if it will last for days or for weeks.
I see a lot more breakouts and fewer breakouts now and it looks very positive. The majority of breakouts are created by a breakaway gap. These gaps end a trend and start a new trend immediately, all on one day. They are one of the most reliable reversal signals available. I would still wait for a healthy pullback on most of these because if the stock breaks down, then there’s no buffer against major loss. What I don’t want to see are more parabolic spikes because they become unsustainable. The shape of this rally will give you an idea if it will last for days or for weeks.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
TODAY'S ACTION
We've been trading in a typical range day that occurs on most FOMC days. The most interesting aspect of the day was the last 5 minutes of the day. There's speculation that it may have been GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt's comments from Spain or HF program selling. In either case, it broke the market's support for today. I didn't trade today, but I can't imagine trading on a day like today.
I refuse to trade because the market has become so sensitive to external stimuli, that you can get caught off guard and will not be able to respond to sudden movements that occur in a matter of minutes (or seconds). For example, in the last 5 minutes of today, you probably thought that "Oh whew, we made it the last hour, thank God". You were probably ready to close your books and maybe even take a piss break thinking that things were ok. That is, until you came back.
There were too many failed patterns today that made it not worthwhile to trade. The "dojiness" of Fed days are common, but the markets are swinging so much that your P/L can range from -10% to +10%. That's not good and you're better off going outside to have a picnic somewhere. Unless there is a clear direction via breakout or breakdown, I will mostly stay in cash. But, that doesn't mean I'll won't do hit-and-runs on the market until I find better uses for my money with holding periods that last longer than an hour. The risk/reward just isn't here.
S&P 500 1-day
S&P 500 3-day
S&P 500 10-day
I refuse to trade because the market has become so sensitive to external stimuli, that you can get caught off guard and will not be able to respond to sudden movements that occur in a matter of minutes (or seconds). For example, in the last 5 minutes of today, you probably thought that "Oh whew, we made it the last hour, thank God". You were probably ready to close your books and maybe even take a piss break thinking that things were ok. That is, until you came back.
There were too many failed patterns today that made it not worthwhile to trade. The "dojiness" of Fed days are common, but the markets are swinging so much that your P/L can range from -10% to +10%. That's not good and you're better off going outside to have a picnic somewhere. Unless there is a clear direction via breakout or breakdown, I will mostly stay in cash. But, that doesn't mean I'll won't do hit-and-runs on the market until I find better uses for my money with holding periods that last longer than an hour. The risk/reward just isn't here.
S&P 500 1-day
S&P 500 3-day
S&P 500 10-dayNY AG CUOMO JOINS WAXMAN IN BANK COMPENSATION REQUEST
ATTORNEY GENERAL CUOMO SEEKS BONUS POOL INFORMATION FROM BANKS RECEIVING FEDERAL FUNDSIn the letter, Cuomo demands detailed information regarding bonus pool allocations from the Boards of Directors of the nine banks. The Boards are also asked to explain what mechanisms they have put in place to protect taxpayer funds.
A LETTER THAT WAS SENT TODAY TO THE FOLLOWING BANKS:
Bank of America
Bank of New York Mellon
Citigroup
Goldman Sachs
J.P. Morgan Chase
Merrill Lynch
Morgan Stanley
State Street
Wells Fargo
Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!
Bank of America
Bank of New York Mellon
Citigroup
Goldman Sachs
J.P. Morgan Chase
Merrill Lynch
Morgan Stanley
State Street
Wells Fargo
Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!
4th WALL STREET SURVIVOR ARTICLE UP
Stock Charting Basics: How to Read and Understand Charts the Right Way:
http://wallstreetsurvivor.com/Public/Learn/SurvivorU/StockChartingBasics.aspLL Sx
Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!
http://wallstreetsurvivor.com/Public/Learn/SurvivorU/StockChartingBasics.aspLL Sx
Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!
TODAY'S ACTION
An impressive day to say the least, but we've been in such extreme oversold conditions, it was only a matter of time. So the market is up over 10%, should you buy? We're still not out of the woods yet. Despite the 10%+ move, we are still in a descending triangle and have yet to test the 20-day MA. The only that isn't convincing is the volume. We did get a nice surge in the last hour, but looking at the entire day, it wasn't anything special. Our markets are influenced by so many external factors that it is still difficult to determine direction. I say that we must wait for confirmation and Wednesday-Friday will confirm (deny) today's move.
S&P 500 1-day
S&P 500 3-day
S&P 500 10-day
S&P 500 6-month
Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!
S&P 500 1-day
S&P 500 3-day
S&P 500 10-day
S&P 500 6-monthDon't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!
TODAY'S BREAKOUTS & BREAKDOWNS
Today was an impressive day, but volume remained unimpressive. Volume hasn’t really exploded in comparison to the other days in a 2-week period on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. Remember Oct 10’s volume? That’s what I would like to see, another surge and more participation. I do wonder, “Where is the money flow coming from, especially when hedge funds, retail investors and everyone else in between has lost so much investment capital?” The rest of this week will serve as confirmation days if, in fact, this is a genuine power rally.
We had an incredible number of power spikes today. Most of the top gainers that are up 30%+ or more fit my long/short trading criteria for spikes. We also have a good combination of breakouts from triangles, all-out breakaway gaps, possible breakouts, and possible newly-formed uptrends. I have included 3 breakdowns as well. Of course, one lousy day in the market could kill the prospects of a market-wide, multi-day rally, but that is all to be determined.
We had an incredible number of power spikes today. Most of the top gainers that are up 30%+ or more fit my long/short trading criteria for spikes. We also have a good combination of breakouts from triangles, all-out breakaway gaps, possible breakouts, and possible newly-formed uptrends. I have included 3 breakdowns as well. Of course, one lousy day in the market could kill the prospects of a market-wide, multi-day rally, but that is all to be determined.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
WAXMAN REQUESTS COMPENSATION & BONUS INFORMATION OF MAJOR BANKS
The bodies of the letters are all the same:Letter to Citigroup (PDF)
Letter to Bank of America (PDF)
Letter to Bank of New York Mellon (PDF)
Letter to Goldman Sachs (PDF)
Letter to JP Morgan & Chase (PDF)
Letter to Merrill Lynch (PDF)
Letter to Morgan Stanley (PDF)
Letter to State Street (PDF)
Letter to Wells Fargo (PDF)
Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!
Letter to Bank of America (PDF)
Letter to Bank of New York Mellon (PDF)
Letter to Goldman Sachs (PDF)
Letter to JP Morgan & Chase (PDF)
Letter to Merrill Lynch (PDF)
Letter to Morgan Stanley (PDF)
Letter to State Street (PDF)
Letter to Wells Fargo (PDF)
Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!
Monday, October 27, 2008
TODAY'S ACTION
Can't really be surprised about the last-half hour meltdown. This is a disaster for the market because the initial support level is now broken and October 10's low is the abosolute last level remaining. There are no more short-term support levels remaining. Technically, if you count the bodies and not the shadows, we broke down a long time ago. Doesn't look good for the market at this point.
S&P 500 1-day
S&P 500 3-day
S&P 500 10-day
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