MARKET COMMENTARY (7-24-09)

KILLED IT:

SPX to 1,000? It's the upper range of the LT consolidation zone:




Sector ETFs:

MARKET COMMENTARY (7-23-09)

Nothing has changed. Yesterday was the 2nd attempt at breaking out and closing above the June high. This breakout must occur if the SPX wants to get out of it's neutral 50 pt range. Looking at the 5-day chart, the SPX is still in a sustained ST uptrend. A close-and-break below the lower channel's segment will be an early warning again a 'top'. Otherwise, the market is still trucking along.

MARKET COMMENTARY (7-22-09)

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I made a solid 1% yesterday. My multiple double-digit gains in HEB and SQNM did the job as I was about halfway through Season 5 of Lost. I've stressed the importance of careful selection many, many times. You will do well if you find stocks that move, regardless of what the general market is doing. Stocks, with minds of their own, can be your best friends as I've demonstrated time and time again.


The SPX is still testing the mid-June peak. In fact, there is so much strength that followed the continuation gap that it is just too dangerous to short. Shorting during a countertrend move is fine, but missing out on the primary trend is not. Unless you have exceptional timing skills, it's best to stick with imminent breakout or breakdown (if short) plays that make your life so much easier. On some days, I don't even bother keeping the SPY chart up because I don't need it.




The COMP is the first and only index that is trying to fill the early Oct gap. Note the boundaries in orange. We can expect significant resistance at this level, primarily because LT breakaway gap downs have a tendency to reject initial attempts.


Finally, I look to the world indices so get a feel for how the rest of the world is doing. I charted the Japanese Nikkei, Hong Kong Hang Seng, S. Korean Kospi, German Dax, French Cac, and the London FTSE. I especially like the neutral range breakout executed by the Kospi.

MARKET COMMENTARY (7-21-09)

The SPX is on the verge of breaking out, and it must break the June peak and close above it. The continuation gap from last week is doing what the textbook says. I don't really care what the market does since I find plays that move up regardless of market direction. However, I do believe a pullback coming as it is necessary and healthy for the rally to continue.

Evey sector is either bullish or neutral:

MARKET COMMENTARY (7-20-09)

The SPX appears to be in a short-term topping pattern. Don't forget that the June resistance became the strongest resistance for the entire duration of this rally. It is not to be ignored. The normal and expected course fo action would be a pullback to the 50-day MA.