We're still in a range, meaning, don't go crazy trying to predict direction and more importantly, betting heavily on what you believe will be the future direction of the market. I have no idea what will happen which is why I take things day-by-day.
In the 1-month chart, make note of the orange ovals. This is where major breakouts and breakdowns have been occurring. Everything else is a waste of time.
Also, today is the last day before a 3-day weekend. There will be low volume making it not worth trading (vs. the regular days I trade).
I'll be in NYC (Financial District) for the weekend. Have a good one.
The SPX is back within the 990-1012ish neutral range. This is within a larger 980-1040 neutral range. I wouldn't suggest trading the indices in such a tight consolidation zone.
Is it time to short? The easy way to answer this question is to break down the market by individual sectors/industries. I like to use the Select Sector SPDRs (XLV, XLB, XLK, XLP, XLI, XLU, XLY, XLF, XLE).
For the most part, each sector is within a neutral range and/or a rising wedge or channel. The XLF is the only sector that broke through it's lower long-term trend line (out of 9). I do pay attention when 2-3 sectors start breaking down ahead of the market, usually a precursor to a major pullback. For now, however, I don't see a reason to rush on getting short.
The SPX is in a neutral range. Today, the market established a 3rd point on the bottom range, giving the appearance of a bull flag with a 15 degree tilt. As long as the present levels hold, this is bullish. Another thing to note is that the market is forming a rising wedge...within a larger rising wedge as it can be seen on the 10-month chart. This is bearish for the intermediate-term. Therefore, focus must be placed on the high probability setups with the least positive correlation with the market.
I'm pretty impressed by the community. You guys are playing the same stocks I'm playing...despite that fact that you don't know what I am playing. I kind of calmed down on posting trades to see if it would make any difference to my ability to focus on my actual trade execution. There isn't much of a difference, but it is time consuming so I'll try to post what I can if time permits.
Some of you ask dumb questions. Questions like "Are you still going to blog when in school?". Duh. I have 3 days out of the week free, too. In fact, I skipped my first day of classes to make 9% yesterday (and I'm sure you would too). Also, a few of you ask me questions with answers that can be found in my educational articles. Stop being lazy and get reading. I don't have time to answer questions like that.
Finally, I'm looking at a variety of potential setups this week, most of which have been played multiple times over the past few months: [[AHT]], [[ANPI]], [[BCRX]], [[CIT]], [[CPST]], [[DVAX]], [[EDAP]], [[FITB]], [[HBAN]], [[HEB]], [[HGSI]], [[INO]], [[JAZZ]], [[MRNA]], [[NVAX]], [[OCLS]], [[ONTY]], [[QTM]], [[RPRX]], [[RTK]], [[SCLN]], [[THC]], [[UIS]], [[XOMA]], and others that may just randomly pop up during the day.
Note: I am NOT taking more students, so stop signing up. I have enough people for the next 2+ years, and I guarantee you that I won't be doing this for 2 years.\
