Thursday, September 3, 2009


The SPX is back within the 990-1012ish neutral range. This is within a larger 980-1040 neutral range. I wouldn't suggest trading the indices in such a tight consolidation zone.

Is it time to short? The easy way to answer this question is to break down the market by individual sectors/industries. I like to use the Select Sector SPDRs (XLV, XLB, XLK, XLP, XLI, XLU, XLY, XLF, XLE).

For the most part, each sector is within a neutral range and/or a rising wedge or channel. The XLF is the only sector that broke through it's lower long-term trend line (out of 9). I do pay attention when 2-3 sectors start breaking down ahead of the market, usually a precursor to a major pullback. For now, however, I don't see a reason to rush on getting short.

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