Tuesday, January 6, 2009

TODAY'S ACTION

We're in a corrective phase as expected. We formed a doji which is typical and healthy for any normal consolidation. Notice how the market bounced off of major support at 920? So far, the charts say that we go higher. I'm not saying that we're going to go up in a straight and uninterrupted line, but I think we have enough juice for another breakout or two.

I would watch the VIX. We are extremely close to the very important long-term 200-day MA. The VIX is currently sitting at September support when the VIX actually flagged before the major breakout to 48. This suggests that the VIX will likely stay within a tight range between 35-45 for several days.

As for myself, I am up +10.87% for January so far. This is mainly due to massive double-digit gains from spikers/momentum plays. GMO, ZLC were held from Friday. CWST was sold. In addition, LVS, ARTC, FIG, and others were bought in the morning. These kinds of stocks are 1-3 day holds and then you just dump them or go short at the end of their runs. I already wrote a short primer on my Spiker strategy here on October 10th, 2008. It's not complete, but I am working on creating a "cheap tricks" manual.

I've mentioned many times in the past that breadth must improve to support a market's rally. New Highs & New Lows for the NYSE ($NYHL) and the NASDAQ ($NAHL) have been net positive for a few days now. In fact, this is the longest streak for the NYSE since May and the longest for the NASDAQ since August. Today, we made 21 new highs and 8 new lows (a huge improvement from the 22 new highs and 4,320 new lows made on October 10th 2008!) . The Advance-Decline lines ($NYAD, $NAAD) also confirm the rally.

This consolidation area is critical. 920 SPX is obviously THE support level. What we don't want to see are breakdowns from conslidation like we've seen many times in the past (Just look at the trading range we've been in since December 8th. I would use a 920 SPX and 20-day MA combo as guides for any significant upcoming bounces. As long as the SPX stays above 920, the bulls are in full control.


SPX 5-day

SPX 10-day

SPX 40-day

SPX 5-month

Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!

2 comments:

Tradermarketinfo said...

JOHN Thanks for your spikers pick! LOL I am up 10% already !! wish I hold them longer into the close they all went crazy towards the end! Great start for 2009!!

: )

TMI

John C. Lee said...

more to come.