Tuesday, November 18, 2008


Today was an easier day and more predictable than yesterday, obviously. It's important to keep your cool and to calm down if you find yourself too excited when you're making or losing money. I always tell my students to have patience in the face of considerable pressure. This morning I sent an alert at 9:28AM writing that I was anticipating a bounce (which did happened). At 9:56AM, I issued a "100% Short" order - slightly early, but didn't matter, the rally was dead from the start. A 10:30 alert was issued to notify traders that it will be another volatile session and if they can't handle it, then get out. A 2:37AM alert was sent notifying that I was still 100% short. A final order at 3:40PM was given to unload most short positions and have some cash handy for tomorrow. I netted a cool 5%.

We tested the lows for the $RUT, slightly for the $COMP, and not quite for the $SPX and $DJIA. The $VIX remains elevated, but the fear seems to be subsiding as it has not tested it's own highs (as of today). The indicator is still consolidating and a breakout is still possible as long as it hold the 20-day MA. As long as we have uncertainty surrounding the markets, it cannot start a strong rally (Ex: GM). In addition, looking at the market's components, 14 out of 28 sectors ended lower with the most decline coming from the broker-dealers, banks, semis, telecom, transports, and gold. I stated previously over the weekend that we needed to 1) cancel out Friday's loss on Monday and 2) break through the 20-day MA within 3 days. Both conditions have not been met yet.

We want to look out for 865 overhead resistance on the $SPX. There is support at around 845-850. We are not out of the woods yet regarding testing Thursday's low.

SPX 1-day

SPX 3-day

SPX 10-day

SPX 6-month

VIX 10-day

Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!

1 comment:

moneymonkey888 said...

Yeah if you are not greedy easy 10% gain today holding short until the final hour! Keep it up John! Thanks for doing this!