Saturday, September 27, 2008


Is this a good time to buy? Nope! There's no reason to buy when a stock is still in a confirmed downtrend, that's how people get burned. What's helpful if trader's look at multiple time frames. For example, during the day I would have up 120 mins (1 min increments), 1 day (5 min inc.), and 3 day charts (10 min inc.). That way I get the entire picture.

In this case, I pulled up a 4-year chart and what I saw was a classic "bump-and-run" reversal. Take a look at the purple lines, notice how the slope is "bumped up" and then once it reached vertical status, it "ran over". Reversals like this signal the complete end of an uptrend. Take a look at the blue lines. These are your major support levels.

Does NOK have additional downside risk? Yes. It is highly likely that the stock could hit $14. If you have to hold stock for a long period of time and do not have the freedom to trade as you please, then I would wait for a higher low to form once it hits $14. This means that on the very next pullback, if it hits $16 or higher and breaks up on strong volume, I would buy. I would also scale in purchases, or average up. This means that I might by 25% at $14, 25% at $16, and so on. The reason is, if I'm wrong, then I haven't committed my entire anticipated position all at once and my loss would be minimized.

Just for fun, I knew I bought NOK sometime in the past, and it was on 6/22/2004 for 30 shares! This was when I was 19 years old (I'm 23 now) and enjoyed writing it down on paper rather than use excel. I made a $30.90 profit!

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