Saturday, September 27, 2008


I recently looked through charts for TOL, BZH, HOV, CTX, and LEN and realized that they ended stage 4, which is the mark down period. The next stage is the accumulation stage, starting back to stage 1. I suspect that the smart money is beginning to accumulate the homebuilders. Notice how most of them are near the levels they were before the housing boom? If I was running a conservative long-only mutual fund, I would start accumulating shares for the long-term over the next several months. Let me remind you, these homebuilders are not going to be shooting back up, but you'll see a gradual rise over the course of several years.

Centex Homes (CTX) - 10 year

Beazer Homes USA (BZH) - 10 year

Lennar (LEN) - 10 year

Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) - 10 year

Toll Brothers (TOL) - 5 year

No comments: