Thursday, May 21, 2009


The important matter going forward is to make note of all support/resistance levels. Pay particular attention to the 10-day SPX chart shown below. The designated "green zone", located between 897-902, is the strongest and most widely used support/resistance area for the past 10 days. When/If the lower band is broken, it is unknown how far the market could correct.

The 1-month chart shows a possible symmetrical triangulation and a possible secondary support area near 885. The 7-month chart clears shows that the market closed above the 15-day MA (901). We can expect to see additional support at the 20-day MA (891), which is also the location of the 2-month+ lower channel line. Final support is indicated at 875. All of this is if the market declines.

As for upside, there first needs to be a breakout above 922, then 930. After this, the market has space to move to the 200-day MA (940). Since no one knows what will happen for sure, you should hedge your portfolio going forward, regardless of what your personal opinions are. Frankly, the market doesn't give a shit what you think.

Note the COMP in the circled area. This is the chop zone at the 200-day MA, more reason to get hedged.

My strategy has worked out well for several weeks. At this stage, I am holding onto 6 long positions, all of which are participating in the circus. In addition, I added one more short unit, FAZ, to accompany QID as a hedge for the portfolio. The point is to find long stocks that are not directly correlated with the market while simultaneously protecting yourself against downside.