Sunday, February 8, 2009


The most important technical area right now is the 50-day MA. This moving average has caused a lot of grief for bulls since 2007. We are still in a huge neutral range. I suspect that it will take the market a while to make up it's mind, but when it does, jumping on the intermediate-term will be extremely profitable. Until then, stick with short-term swing trading and the more favored day trading strategies.

On the 40-day chart, you can see that I marked off 860-880. This is an area where the market either continued or reversed it's direction. This area also marks the 50-day MA, which is currently at 867 on the SPX. We broke out of a short-term symmetrical triangle, but with all the crap going on, don't be surprised if we get a -20/-30 pt pullback. There are too many news items that will be coming out that will precipitate an instant rally or sell-off. This could be another "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of thing. Don't get too excited about anything.

I am currently reading "Trade with Passion and Purpose by Mark Whistler (Wiley, 2007)". It's a $49.95 book, but worth every penny. It deals with all aspects of the psychological/emotional element in trading, an area that is very much neglected. I always tell traders to be patient and stop being impulsive. Much of trading is about waiting - waiting for the set-up, waiting for the breakout, waiting for the pivot point, waiting and more waiting!

Be cool, hunny bunny.

I did remarkably well so far in 2009, producing gains above +60% YTD. My intention is to now cut my position sizing by half and trade less frequently in order to make sure these gains (+ future gains) stay with me until the end of 2009 for my 4th annual triple-digit gain. In fact, I'm going to take a break for a week because I fucking deserve one. I would go on vacation, except I have to babysit some students. The majority of my gains come from my proprietary Spiker strategy and maybe, one day, I'll write a book on it.

Currently in 90% cash and not giving a damn about what happens this week. Watch that 50-day MA.

I forgot to mention: the Total Unemployment (U-6), unadjusted, is at 15.4%! The chart below is the only chart where I don't expect a pullback any time soon.

Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!

1 comment:

Bob said...

Good for you John,
Take a good mental break.