Thursday, February 12, 2009


UPDATE: Jobless Claims - 623K vs. 582.25K previous, 510K/650K consensus.

The levels to watch are:

1) 820-840 SPX - The range has narrowed and the past two days may be setting up for a rectangular consolidation are, most likely for a bearish continuation. A gap down below 820 and a gapup above 840 need to be taken seriously.

2) 20-day MA - Currently located at 839-840, the SPX could not break out above it all day yesterday.

3) 850, 30-day MA (858) Resistance - This is in addition to the 50-day MA(867) and the upper line segment of the triangle (875ish).

4) 820-822 Support- This is a major level that was tested intra-day yesterday. 820 and 815 are also psychological support areas in addition to a break in the November lower trend line.

Keep these in mind for today.

5-day SPX

10-day SPX

40-day SPX

5-month SPX

WARNING: Extremely Offensive

Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!

1 comment:

Bob said...

In light of the present financial crisis, it's interesting to read what Thomas Jefferson said in 1802:

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." Thomas Jefferson


1. As of 2010, given recent spending packages and entitlements of various sorts, what will be the accumulated liability of the United States, and that, not counting the additional liabilities of the bankrupt states like California?

2. How much implied inflation will that be with say, $50 oil?

3. How will that in turn, compare to current GNP in terms of real dollars?

4. How much would our forward GNP thus need to grow just to break even?

5. Thus, what discount decimal with respect to a classic discounted cash flow, intrinsic valuation would one have to give for five and ten year periods respectively in order to achieve an attractive risk/reward ratio for investing in equities?

6. How much will interest rates need to rise to keep M2-M3 at reasonable levels?

7. How would such impact the older "dividend discount model" for valuing equities? What yield must they pay to achieve an attractive risk/reward ratio?

"We have met the enemy...and he is..." Pogo