Wednesday, February 25, 2009

MARKET COMMENTARY (2-25-09)

I did not do much today and only rebalanced my existing minuscule long/short positions. The market is once again boxed in after failing to hold the inverse h&s pattern. This time, they do not involve the major moving averages. You can take a look at the 10-day SPX chart to see that the SPX is at overhead resistance around 780, support at 755, and a lot of whipsaw in between. I will personally be waiting for an exit from this box to load up on positions.

On the daily chart, if the market flags down here, then the chances of going many more points lower is well above 90%. It's almost a near certainty. This is why the market needs to spike higher to avoid flagging down at the lows for a meltdown set-up. We formed a doji yesterday which is more of a 50/50 day (not good odds). There's no rush. Really.

Still reading "
When Giants Fall: An Economic Roadmap for the End of the American Era" by Michael Panzner (Wiley, 2009).


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2 comments:

Ted said...

Thanks for the advice. Could we be looking at the Dow going down to the 6,500 range within a few days?

Ted

John C. Lee said...

its possible, but that depends on how the market develops.