Tuesday, November 25, 2008


I came back from a nice dinner, a very important annual meeting of my own, and a very controlled, early night of hedonistic pleasure. I run several businesses, so unfortunately, I cannot participate in late-night debauchery sessions. My first and foremost allegiance is to everyone else, and not myself. I realized that when a friend asked me why I never planned a personal party. Answer: I'm just not the outgoing, personal planning type. I keep to myself most of the time. I prefer small groups of friends and associates and familiar places vs. large groups and high-end venues. However, I will be going out every, single day this week because it was my tradition to do so since I turned 21. Therefore, posts may be delayed during this most important week as I make this painful and sudden transition from 23 to 24.

Okay, anyway. We had the Citigroup rally, but we always rally on a bailout, so what's new, right? I say that if we have a down -350 to -400 point day, this rally is entirely over and the leg down continues via bearish engulfing or dark cloud cover. If we drop less, then we are most likely ok and we will become range bound. The only thing I don't want to see are continued spikes with more and more narrow days as they tend to exhibit strong reversals at the end. We have hit a key resistance area which can be seen in the multi-month chart below. What was support has now become resistance. It all depends on the size and shape of any morning gap within the first 30 minutes. As for today's orders, the program has been changed to promote short positional trading and no orders were issued today.

All I can say is that we won't be continuing up in a straight line fashion. We can either reverse here or at the 20-day MA. It is possible to thrust back up to our consolidation zone. This week will determine if we continue in the fourth leg or if we just hang out in an excruciatingly painful neutral range designed to slowly wipe out people's accounts. I will remind you that a strong bull rally requires buying conviction. There is still so much fear money on the sidelines. I made it back to +68% for the month and feverishly wait to break +70% in time for Thanksgiving.

SPX 1-day

SPX 3-day

SPX 10-day

SPX 6-month

Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!

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