The 100-day MA is the most important MA at the moment. The last time the moving average was it was back in March/April for the SPX, DJIA, and COMP. Prior to that, the 100-day MA was hit in mid-2008 and there was always a major market move that followed. This puts the odds for a move to the 200-day MA as the 'most likely' scenario. In addition, note the textbook breakdown from the rising wedge and how each correction became larger and sharper up to this point.
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