Friday, July 10, 2009

MARKET COMMENTARY (7-10-09)



I will do a complete SPX analysis today, just for the hell of it. This is just one of the steps I take to prepare for the next trading day.

Here is the 5-day chart + 1 blank day:




Each trend line is important in the setup of a blank day. The current anticipated range should be between 870-900. I know that that is pretty wide, but that's how it is. Some days are narrower and others are wider. The small orange boxes indicate intra-day pivot points that coincide with their respective trends. If done correctly, multiple lines should perfectly intersect each other. I give more weight on dual segment crosses thank single ones. Why? Because it is reasonable to anticipate slightly stronger support or resistance at these areas.

Moving on to the 2-month/60-min chart + the rest of the month:




I marked the shorter-term consolidation areas while simultaneously marking the pivots are the wider swings. These are my danger zones, or areas where I have to pay closer attention. Why? Usually large breakout or breakdown spikes usually create enough force for a temporary trend shift.


Now the 3-month/60-min chart:




The three separate boxes enclose the largest swings. The green and tred areas indicate that consolidation will take several weeks. Notice how not much time is spent in the orange box. This is the 'battlefield'. Major shifts occur in this area and it doesnt take long to determine the winner.


Finally, the 5-month/daily chart:





This puts everything I talked about above into perspective. It allows me to guestimate how the month will look like. This range is between 840-930., the major determining point obviously being 875-880, or the horizontal neckline (and current location of the 200-day MA).


5 comments:

Scalpwiz said...

market is getting complicated, anyway I read your awesome blog everyday and your posts help me a lot. So thank you.

Gold said...

The graphical style is so good. I think this a nice formula. And this blog give a lot of knowledge about of market.Watch a free video on Gold IRA.

The Average Jay said...

Hello first time on the blog. I like the way you take your time to do the work. That was a great post. Keep up the good work I joined your followers.

Jay

www.tradingwiththeaveragejay.blogspot.com

John C. Lee said...

you're welcome

j0sh1ngU said...

Sometimes being early to the show, but in the right stocks is being early to the big show. Aka financial's and other stocks that I shorted topped prior to the market. Perhaps you and IBC will eventually realize... why I was bearish.. Comments appreciated...

The market is not won by one day or one week. But over the time of your own trade horizon.

All bounces will be sold. Sell short the rips....

By the way very nice performance thus far this year. Hope you have joined the short campaign.