Wednesday, March 18, 2009

MARKET COMMENTARY (02-18-09)

I'm in 100% cash once again, not having the courage to hold overnight positions, especially when we're at the 50-day MA. I see no reason to put my money at risk here. The 50-day MA is like a stop sign along a trend and the market has always met resistance here and has either paused and continued its uptrend or stopped completely and made a U-turn to go back to where it came from. The same applies to the market - it's one big road.

No doubt, you'll see some crazy drivers. For example, today you saw the Bernanke in the front seat of dollar destruction, driving 130 in a 65, recklessly throwing Benjamins out the window. And if you're a short-seller, you might see Congressmen tailgating your ass, shouting and shit, telling you to get off the road. You realize that they're all driving POS Ford Pintos and Chevy Cavaliers, so you just speed up while giving them the finger behind you, hoping that they don't pull out the uptick gun in their fit of rage and use it on you.

As you're cruising along, you'll encounter SEC cops sitting on their fat asses enjoying their KKD donuts and not giving a care about what happens on the road. They're only there because other drivers want them enforcing the law. You stop on the side of the road to inform them that a 70 year old man with silver, curly hair wearing a jacket with the initials "BLM" and a stupid grin on his face looked like he was robbing some bikers on the shoulder of the road. The cops go back to eating their donuts, not giving a damn. You get back in your car and drive into the sunset, giving them the finger.

As dusk approaches, you come across some highway construction workers putting up directional signs to help you navigate the road. You stop and ask the bald guy, Cramer, for some directions. After blindly following his stupid directions, your car ends up in a swamped out ditch on the side of the road in the middle of no-fucking-where. It is 3am and you're standing on the shoulder having lost your wallet, phone, and your shirt.

But good thing you had your seat belt on.



Bullish broadening wedges are only bullish if the market consolidates at the upper range and breaks out. Otherwise, there is a risk that the market can fall to the lower end of the wedge, just fyi.

Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!


5 comments:

RPS said...

Brilliant!

Cliffynator said...

Ha! That is TOO funny, man!
I bet Bernanke was driving so fast to get to his helicopter (ref: Helo Ben).

My first car was a Cavalier...

John C. Lee said...

I'm not finished. This is only part I.

Greenlander said...

Great stuff. Plus youre the only blog who has pointed out the broadening wedge option.

I could imagine monster short squeeze part 2 if $COMPQ/ $SPX rattle around for a week or two right below where we are now. A lot of shorts could interpret this as wkness and get completed blindsided as they pile in.

I write this although I am solidly short now.

John C. Lee said...

it's an option that's available.

Yes, esp on a breakout above the 50-day.