Thursday, February 19, 2009

MARKET COMMENTARY (2-18-09)

Nothing has radically changed. I am still short financials and will be looking to add more. We are still forming a small multi-day continuation flag. As for today itself, we formed a doji, or indecision day, but it's not a major reversal pattern due to the lack of accompanying volume. It looks more like a continuation to the downside. As a swing trader, I could care less about intra-day moves unless something major happens - all of which seem to occur after 3PM.



At approximately 1PM, I even mentioned that it was going to be a doji day (on Twitter). My obsession with doji is the fact that it's one of the most highly predictable intra-day patterns. Just fyi, doji days are the worst days to be day trading, so don't. They are the best to enter swing trades, so please do.

Bill Miller needs to stop calling bottoms. We are a ball sac hair away from touching the DJIA November lows. What's he going to do? Call a 3rd bottom? lol. Birinyi also called a bottom [I uploaded their report here]. Listen up people, stop calling these bottoms! The Bill Miller bottom is about to be tested and I'm not sure if it'll hold. There is too much bullish sentiment still lingering.



In addition to financials, the REITs are also great shorts.


Don't forget to try the Free Trend Analysis. It's FREE, so give it a shot!

7 comments:

Brian said...

Which financials do you believe have the biggest donwside potential?

VKC said...

Great call on the doji day.

JWC4 said...

The reason after 3 is so crazy is because that is when the only market available is equities. Bonds and Commodities are closed and so are all the overseas markets. So everyone that is trading is trading US equities. thats where you get your 'WTF' patterns.
-JWC4

John C. Lee said...

It's been like that forever.

If you notice, they're always on the mark at either 3PM or 3:30PM or some other minute number that's a multiple of 5 or 10.

It's most likely due to EOD black box trading. There really isn't a simple clear-cut explanation.

John C. Lee said...

pick one.

JWC4 said...

Do you use an ETF to trade the Hong Kong Index. If so which one.

John C. Lee said...

i don't.