WATCH SVA, BCRX

Also, the SPX 1-mo/60-min chart:

MARKET COMMENTARY (9-8-09)

Hope everyone had a great Labor Day weekend.

MARKET COMMENTARY (9-4-09)

We're still in a range, meaning, don't go crazy trying to predict direction and more importantly, betting heavily on what you believe will be the future direction of the market. I have no idea what will happen which is why I take things day-by-day.

In the 1-month chart, make note of the orange ovals. This is where major breakouts and breakdowns have been occurring. Everything else is a waste of time.

Also, today is the last day before a 3-day weekend. There will be low volume making it not worth trading (vs. the regular days I trade).

I'll be in NYC (Financial District) for the weekend. Have a good one.

MARKET COMMENTARY (9-3-09)

The SPX is back within the 990-1012ish neutral range. This is within a larger 980-1040 neutral range. I wouldn't suggest trading the indices in such a tight consolidation zone.


Is it time to short? The easy way to answer this question is to break down the market by individual sectors/industries. I like to use the Select Sector SPDRs (XLV, XLB, XLK, XLP, XLI, XLU, XLY, XLF, XLE).

For the most part, each sector is within a neutral range and/or a rising wedge or channel. The XLF is the only sector that broke through it's lower long-term trend line (out of 9). I do pay attention when 2-3 sectors start breaking down ahead of the market, usually a precursor to a major pullback. For now, however, I don't see a reason to rush on getting short.