KNOWING WHEN TO CHILL OUT

That's right. Chilling the F*** out. After making 2 trades today, I realized that today was just gonna be "one of those doji days". In fact, that's what happened. I was in the city (DC) for the afternoon, realizing that my time is best suited elsewhere. There's no point in wasting your time on a day where you know you will not make big-d**ked gains. (I am making an effort to stop cussing on the internets).

Realizing when to take the day off is just as important as realizing when you have to be 100% committed to a day. Do not waste your time. Maximize your opportunities. Think about it - my mantra is "to make the most amount of money in the shortest period of time". I cannot do that in this environment, especially with the lack of follow-through that I have been stressing for weeks now. The thing is, you never know when you will get that huge, epic day. It just comes, and BAM! you take home a double-digit total portfolio gain. Just like that.

I have yet to see the intra-daytrading environment improve. Therefore, I will continue to test out certain trades until the moment is imminent. It will improve when you least expect it and the question is, "Are you ready and prepared for it?" Stay vigilant, traders. Never lose focus toward your goal in making a F***ing killing. That's how we roll.

Bottom line: don't trade like a clueless idiot.

BROADENING RISING WEDGE

The pattern in focus is the broadening rising wedge. The rally continues, but this is an intermediate-term consolidation pattern, one that may not have been clearly visible to most people.

I continue to see the lack of follow-through and so far, intra-day tests confirm it. Careful selection and money management play critical roles here.

THE GOOD AND THE BAD / VOLUME + FOLLOW-THROUGH / HAPPY B-DAY IBC!

Yesterday started with several losses (mostly from AONE) which were mitigated with one sweet trade in AIG in the afternoon. The TOL trade was peanuts. It pays to pay attention, you know. Below, I posted annotated charts with my AONE loss and my AIG win. Things to be learned from both trades. In the end, I won. Winning sure is more fun than losing, but I don't have to tell you that.


There are a lot of people that try to mimic my style, but it's not for everyone. In fact, it's probably not for most people. I never had a mentor to teach me so I found my own way all by myself. Stop copying people and go explore your own path. What I do should just be one tool in your toolbox, mostly likely the HAMMER. Go through my educational articles and find out who you are and what style best suits you.

The SPX, along with many other indices and individual sectors, formed shooting stars, black-filled candles, and all types of doji. The narrow range, again, made it difficult to trade. Know when to just stop and watch. You're not missing anything. This lack of follow-through is killing the probabilities of even the highest probable trades, thus reducing the chances of success. I am looking for range expansion, follow-through, more volume, and other characteristics so I don't have to deal with uncertainty.


Beware of false breakouts and breakdowns. The tell is the volume. Here's a little summary:

To go long:
Breakouts - bullish on high volume. Buying with pressure and conviction.
Pullbacks - bullish on low volume. Indicates healthy consolidation.

To go short: Breakdowns - bearish on high volume. Selling with pressure and conviction.
Pullbacks - bearish on low volume. Indicates healthy consolidation.

Didn't I write an article on this? Anyway, HAPPY BIRTHDAY to iBankCoin! Almost exactly a year ago, I got on board and enjoyed it ever since trading with some good folks and dealing with a bunch of assholes.

Have a nice day.

INDEX UPDATE: NEUTRAL-BEARISH

Currently neutral-bearish. My sentiment has not changed and I believe the correction may take a while, but that's just my thoughts. What are we looking for?

SPX - The 20-day MA test continues with a possible H&S pattern developing. The criteria is that a lower high is produced on the daily which is TBD.

DJIA - Possible ascending triangle still developing.Out of all the indices, if we do continue with the rally, the DJIA should be the first to break to new highs.

COMP - Currently the most neutral out of all the indices. Between the 20/50-day MA's. Will be neutral for several days. Possible channels are drawn out.

RUT - Still the weakest of all.Broke an ascending triangle and now flagging. The 20-day MA has crossed below the 50-day MA and may be used as future resistance. Look for further consolidation.

BKX - Weakest sector is the banking index. Forming a bear flag. The market will have difficulty if the financials do not rally. Pretty obvious, right? Watch them carefully.

All of this is where the neutral-bearish stance comes. When you trade, never forget to look for the high probability setups. I am playing them daily, and winning daily. The better the intra-day and/or daily setup, the better odds you have at success. Don't just "play anything" or people like me will take your money.

Don't complain about my wins. If you aren't winning, then you're doing something wrong. Figure out what you're doing wrong, fix it, and start winning with me.

BEARISH / THE TRLG TRADE

Yesterday's big trades were in TRLG for me. It wasn't like the day before where I absolutely killed it, but nonetheless, I managed to hit TRLG twice and profit twice. The diagram of trades taken is pictured below. The green squares are short entry points and the orange squares are scaled out exit points. I "missed" two trades, but only because the volume wasn't there and also because the 2nd "miss" was right after the FOMC decision. Execution was near perfect on this, so study it.


Moving onto the general market, I am bearish as the title of the post suggests. We formed a gravestone doji on the SPX, shooting star on the DJIA, and a dark cloud cover on the RUT. All three are bearish signals. In addition, note how the indices are "churning" at their respective MA's. If you watch my shows on Stocktwits TV, you would know that I consider this move mostly bearish. The last chart is the IWM, the Russell 2000 iShares ETF. Note the massive sell off volume. The RUT did and will continue to lead the way.

FOMC DAY / SPX in DESCENDING CHANNEL + FLAG

Thanks to everyone that watched the show last night. If you couldn't, it's in the Stocktwits.tv archives.

I am undecided on direction for today simply because we have the FOMC announcement today at 2:15PM. I don't suggest trading prior to that announcement (if you are trading the indices). I suggest careful and decisive trading based on the reaction. The full reaction should take 30-45 minutes.

The SPX is in a downward channel. As the day progresses, note that we are near dual resistance levels (on the 10-day chart). We are forming a flag that is most clearly visible on the multi-month daily chart.

DESCENDING CHANNEL

Below is the 5-day chart of the SPX with a 'extra day' added on for today. See the descending channel? Use that as your short-term guide.


The RUT is now at the 100-day MA as it formed a doji yesterday. There wasn't much of a fight at the 50-day, so let's see if we see some struggle here. Make note that this is the first time the RUT touched the 100-day since April.

WEEKEND THOUGHTS ON THE SPX, DJIA, COMP, RUT, SECTORS

All indices have formed stick sandwiches or modifications of them. I am short/intermediate-term bearish and will reflect this sentiment by incorporating my primary swing strategies with the current day trading. Day trading is great and all, but I'm looking to capture larger chunks of the moves. Also, it'll ease up my time to focus on other things. A swing trade can be a simple overnight 2-day hold or a multi-week hold and everything in between.

Charts shown are 9-mo and 5-mo.

The SPX is short-term bearish and intermediate-term neutral as it is with most of the other indices. I'm looking for a 1-day neutral/reactionary move for entry. The RUT continues to lead the way down as I have predicted. It is testing the 100-day MA. The DJIA is testing the lower ascending range as well as the 50-day MA. Finally, the COMP is in a neutral range and threatening the lower boundary. Notice how all the indices are in different stages of the correction?


The transport index is also testing the 100-day MA and is in a neutral range.


Not only are all the indices in different stages, so are the individual sectors.

SPX 20/50-DAY TRAP

Long before the SPX formed the 20/50-trap, most stocks formed what I call the "20/50-day churn" which is essentially the same thing except that we do not know if the SPX will churn. The only way to tell is if a lower high is made, and that is yet to be seen.

The trap is basically when a stock or the market tests the 50-day and then test the 20-day MA's, creating the possibility of continued narrow-ranged consolidation. The trap the turns into the churn if the range cannot be broken in it's entirety.

In the case of the SPX, a churn is bearish as it cannot form a higher high. If the SPX can bust through the 20-day and flag, it is likely going to make the attempt to test the high of the rally. I am and have remained mostly neutral on my stand on market direction.

On the char below marks the 20/50-day MA's. Also noe that we are forming an ascending broadening wedge within a larger rising wedge. In the first two corrections, the market was able to successfully bounce without the need for the 50-day. The past correction in the beginning of Oct required the 50-day. This correction needed further room lower. Make note of this trend as a mark of weakness.

I am still looking at my standard names such as AIG, but am also looking at CAR, NANO, NVTL, CROX, DAN, PVTB, CNXT for major reversals/continuations. I will mark trades if I take them.That is, if I make to campus before the open.

Rising Wedge Divergences in the Indices (And Stocktwits Charity Poker Tournament)

What’s up, ya’ll?

I was looking at the DJIA, SPX, COMP, and RUT to assess how each index compares with each other when it comes to the development stages of the “rising wedge”.

First, the DJIA is in a perfect wedge. The apex is still developing.

The SPX is the chart that I look at with most frequency. We are close to touching the lower trend line.

Next up is the COMP. The COMP is technically out of it’s wedge and forming a possible ascending triangle. Pay close attention as the apex becomes fully developed.

Last but definitely not least, I’d like you to turn your attention to the RUT. If anything, the RUT has to be paid attention to the most. Notice how I haven’t been seriously playing the small caps for 2 months straight? This is why. Make note that the RUT IS forming an ascending triangle. The ascending triangle is textbook bullish, however, don’t forget that I mentioned several times that failed patterns can produce large profits if you are on the right side. The range here is definitely tightening. Mark the 50-day as the most important support (notice how the RUT will be the first to test the 50-day vs. the other indices?).

Finally, I will be playing in the Stocktwits Charity Poker Tournament tomorrow. This is a really great thing that Joey (a.k.a Downtowntrader) started up. There is a bounty for knocking me out: a bottle of grey goose, courtesy of Joey himself.

UPDATE: Rising Wedge Possibilities